Gates Foundation awards IHME $540.2 million for health data and AI-enabled tools

The 10-year grant will expand Global Burden of Disease estimates from roughly 925 locations to nearly 5,000 while supporting health forecasting and financing research

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington has received a $540.2 million, 10-year grant from the Gates Foundation.

The Gates Foundation has awarded the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine $540.2 million over 10 years to expand its global health data, forecasting and financing research, alongside AI-enabled tools intended to make those resources easier to use.

The University of Washington describes the award as the largest charitable grant it has ever received. The funding will support three areas of IHME’s work: the Global Burden of Disease study, health forecasting and the tracking of global health spending.

The commitment extends a relationship that began when the Gates Foundation and the state of Washington provided the founding investment for IHME in 2007. The institute was established to measure health challenges and assess whether policies and programs were improving people’s lives.

Announcing the new funding on LinkedIn, Trevor Mundel, President of Global Health at the Gates Foundation, connected the investment to the pressure on public health budgets: “The next decade of global health will require making smarter decisions with tighter resources. This investment can help put better evidence into the hands of the people making those decisions.”

Global Burden of Disease expands to nearly 5,000 locations

The largest geographic change will come through the Global Burden of Disease study, which measures deaths, illness, disability, injuries and health risks.

IHME currently produces estimates for approximately 925 locations. The grant is expected to increase that figure to nearly 5,000, giving governments and researchers access to more subnational data rather than relying primarily on national averages.

IHME says the additional detail could help identify local disparities that broader figures may conceal, including areas where maternal or child deaths are increasing, diseases are placing pressure on health systems or particular populations are being missed.

“Reliable and independent evidence can mean the difference between reacting to a health crisis after it has taken hold and acting early enough to change its course,” says Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, IHME Director and Professor of Health Metrics Sciences.

“This investment will allow us to provide high-quality evidence at a much more local level and help leaders understand not only where health is improving or worsening, but which decisions can make the greatest difference for people.”

Murray, the grant’s principal investigator, started the Global Burden of Disease study in the early 1990s. Its research network now includes more than 20,000 collaborators across over 150 countries and territories, including researchers, clinicians, government analysts and policymakers.

According to IHME, Global Burden of Disease estimates, its forecasts and its health spending data have been cited in nearly 8,000 policy documents. These include national health strategies, benefit packages, monitoring frameworks and decisions concerning budgets and program implementation.

Forecasting, health spending and a defined role for AI

A second portion of the grant will expand IHME’s forecasts and future scenarios. The institute currently produces health forecasts through 2100 for every country, covering changes in populations, diseases, health risks and policy choices.

IHME plans to make those forecasts more geographically detailed, connect them more closely to its latest disease burden findings and create more customizable scenarios for individual countries.

The funding will also sustain the institute’s tracking of health financing, including development assistance, government and private spending, and payments made directly by people receiving care.

Its annual Financing Global Health research covers health spending across 204 countries. The next phase will examine how governments respond when external funding declines and forecast health expenditure through 2100.

The commitment defines AI’s role relatively narrowly. New AI-enabled tools are intended to make IHME’s data, forecasts and financing resources easier for policymakers and researchers to use, while the underlying evidence will continue to be based on the transparent, peer-reviewed methods used for the Global Burden of Disease study.

IHME says its research and data will remain freely available to countries, researchers and communities, regardless of income or access to commercial data systems.