Gates Foundation targets 10 million more US learners earning credentials by 2045

The strategy concentrates investment on four stages from middle school math to college credit transfer, with initial targets set for 2030

Students at the A. Philip Randolph School in Harlem discuss how teachers and learners respond to assessment practices

The Gates Foundation has set a new long-term US education strategy aimed at helping up to 10 million more people aged 18 to 34 earn credentials by 2045, the year the foundation plans to close.

Its U.S. Program will concentrate on four points where learners can lose academic momentum: progressing toward Algebra I, moving from high school into and through college, passing introductory college courses and retaining credits when transferring between institutions.

The strategy combines investment in education systems with funding for tools and approaches that can reach more learners. These include AI-enabled instructional resources, personalized advising, redesigned first-year college courses and infrastructure for transferring evidence of learning between institutions and into the workforce.

Initial targets cover the period to 2030. The foundation wants schools to use instructional systems and tools capable of supporting more than one and a half years of student growth, alongside a five-percentage-point increase in enrollment among first-generation learners.

For students using foundation-supported courseware, it is targeting pass rates of around 80% in critical first-year college courses. It also aims to halve historical outcome gaps affecting Black, Latino, Indigenous and low-income students in those courses.

A fourth goal is to increase the share of college credits successfully transferred from 32% to approximately 40%.

Four points where learners lose momentum

The four priorities reflect figures cited by Allan C. Golston, outgoing President of the Gates Foundation’s U.S. Program.

More than 6.7 million students in grades three to eight are over one grade level behind in math, while students who are not on track by ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate from high school on time.

College access is another focus. Students who receive individual support from a counselor are three times more likely to attend college, according to research cited by Golston, but potential first-generation students remain the least likely to receive the advising they need.

Introductory courses present a further barrier. As many as 30% of college learners receive a D or F grade or withdraw from courses including calculus, chemistry and statistics. In math alone, the foundation says this amounts to nearly one million failed course attempts each year.

Credit transfer completes the four-part strategy. The foundation cites average losses of more than 40% of previously earned credits when students change colleges, adding between $2,700 and $5,500 to learner debt.

Jamie McKee, Director, Advocacy & System Improvement, U.S. Program at the Gates Foundation, linked the strategy to a long-standing problem with expanding programs beyond their original settings.

“A great tool or program isn't enough on its own to change outcomes for students,” she wrote on LinkedIn.

McKee, who has spent almost 20 years at the foundation working across education policy, K-12 system change and assessment, added: “There's a stubborn pattern in education. A program gets real results for students, and then it stays exactly where it started.”

The Advocacy & System Improvement team will work on the policy, evidence, incentives and institutional capacity needed to expand approaches beyond individual classrooms and schools.

AI investment will focus on an education ecosystem

The strategy divides the foundation’s investment into two connected areas. One will support schools, colleges and wider systems through research, shared tools, policy work and partnerships. The second will fund tools and approaches, many of them technology-enabled, intended to reach learners at scale.

In K-12 education, that includes combining curriculum, teacher professional learning and AI-enabled tools within educator-led instruction. The foundation also plans to continue funding research and development into tools designed to support student engagement and motivation.

Its postsecondary work will cover personalized advising outside conventional office hours, redesigned introductory courses and data infrastructure intended to simplify credit transfer.

Golston draws a boundary around the technology strategy: “We are not betting on any single product, platform, or technology company. We are investing in an ecosystem: the tools, the evidence, the institutions, and the infrastructure that together can support millions of learners.”

AI is already part of teachers’ working practices. Figures from Gallup cited by the foundation show that 60% of K-12 teachers used an AI tool for their work during the school year, but only 18% received formal guidance on its use.

The foundation says its investments will prioritize evidence of impact, student data protection and student well-being. It also argues that AI should support learning without removing the effort involved in developing understanding.

“Teachers remain central. Caring adults must remain in the lead, not just in the loop,” Golston states.

The new strategy arrives alongside leadership changes within the U.S. Program. Golston, who has led the program since 2006, will step down on August 31, 2026.

Patrick Methvin will become Interim President on September 1. Dale Whittaker will serve as Interim Director of Postsecondary Learning and Navigation, while Lewis Leiboh will become Interim Director of K-12 Teaching and Learning.